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Wed, 28 Oct 2026 01:05:14 -0700
Andy from private IP, post #12320582
/all
World events and potential outcomes
I wrote this email to my colleagues at the law firm, and I think folks on here can get some use out of it, also.
--
Hi all,
If you've been following nerd news like I have, you have seen lately that several breakthroughs have been announced in the area of artificial
intelligence/superintelligence. These include a stunning realization by OpenAI (published as a research paper just yesterday) that something called the
Exponential Time Hypothesis is not true. This has big implications for a pillar of computer science known as the P=NP problem. In summary, if P=NP, then every
computer programming challenge has a simple solution that can be computed and verified. This is actually the worst-ever news, because if P=NP, there is no more
encryption over the internet and the internet becomes unusable overnight, as well as banking transactions and anything else requiring security. If P!=NP, we
are safe for a long time and there is no short-term risk. Basically, this is a knife edge with a steep cliff on one side and the status quo on the other side.
If you've been following world news like I have, you have seen lately a number of distressing events that portend a dark future for everyone, at least for some
unknown period of time. This includes a possible singularity in the form of a black swan world-changing event, such as the emergence of Artificial General
Intelligence (AGI) that becomes self-aware. Indeed, signs have already occurred, such as the use of A.I. to prove mathematical theorems that were, until now,
impossible to prove. It is likely only a matter of time before A.I. reaches a point where it becomes self-aware/conscious. You may have heard Elon Musk
predicting a bright future where there is endless abundance and money becomes unnecessary. If you believe that, then great-- but the issue is what happens
between now and then.
Additionally, President Trump is talking about a new campaign in Iran, which is both the world's leading sponsor of terrorism and also the world's second or
third-most advanced cyber warfare adversary after Russia and China.
World governments have started telling people to stock up on food and water and be self-sufficient for three days, or longer. The UK government has told its
citizens to prepare for war. The U.S. government has told all military bases that they must be self-sufficient for up to 90 days. Chaotic scenes of
rioters/looters in France and now Brazil's allegedly stolen election suggest that the stability of governments is somewhat of an illusion.
The U.S. midterm elections, however you feel about politics, are poised to become the most consequential in a generation, and probably in my lifetime. There
was a data dump of ten separate releases on X/Twitter by someone who obtained the plans and recorded video calls of a group of "democracy advocates" who are
planning something big after the upcoming elections, during which they openly advocate for a reset of the U.S. Constitution through a manufactured crisis that
provokes the President into invoking the Insurrection Act. I have citations for everything in this email including this point, but I think you don't really
need those to believe that ex-USAID/ex-State Department officials are plotting some type of seditious conspiracy.
From the above and other factors, I'm assessing there is a high probability of a world-changing event, crisis, and/or war in the next couple of weeks. If I
were Iran and facing the extinction of the regime, I would take a page out of the Biblical story of Samson. If you're not familiar, the legend of Samson tells
the story of an Israelite judge who, rather than be displayed as a captured slave, broke the pillars of a temple and collapsed it, killing himself along with
hundreds of Philistines. Israel actually has a "Samson Option" which is the use of their nuclear weapons in a situation their country is faced with
annihilation. Probably so does Iran: a series of mass cyberattacks coinciding with the U.S. midterm elections using A.I.-exploited "zero day" cyber
vulnerabilities that they have been saving for just this scenario. We saw a preview of this a few days ago when an A.I.-assisted attack on PHP was announced.
PHP runs 70% of the world wide web and any flaw is a catastrophe. SSH is something else that could be broken and runs probably 99% of the internet, which would
be even worse. And of course, SSH requires P!=NP or it doesn't work at all...I think you see where I'm going with this.
An attack that disables the internet on a mass scale would paralyze business, logistics, and/or supply chains, and result in a destabilizing disruption for
days, weeks, or longer. The only communications in that scenario will be possible over Starlink or terrestrial radio, if at all, and this would certainly
require activation of the Emergency Broadcast System by the government. In the event an internet disruption coincides with some other black swan event, the
change could be rapid and disruptive, if not existential, due to the communications blackout that provides opportunity for misinformation and other challenges.
What does this mean for the law firm? Simple, in the event of a mass scale event or a technological singularity with existential risk, the U.S. government will
do another shelter-in-place lockdown like with COVID-19, but this time, they will use all the lessons learned from last time and not screw it up as much. I
don't know what that looks like except to say that if the power goes out or water shuts off for any length of time, you will see a civil and humanitarian
disaster on a large scale for at least days, if not longer.
Why am I writing this? Well, first I want to say, your number one duty as it always should be is to your families, especially including physical safety and
security. My advice to you is to be prepared enough to survive three full days of chaos during which, on a national or global level, the future is uncertain.
I strongly believe that during this period, there will be a period of local crime and looting during which certain areas become impassable or at least very
unsafe. My family and I will be fine unless the water and power go out at our building, in which case it looks like we're going to crash at my parents' house
for a while. As you all know, I am my own and my family's security, and I am thanking my lucky stars that I have all my guns and ammunition back after the
dismissal of that stupid frivolous DV case that my crazy ex from 2021 filed back in August. My CCW permit also got renewed recently. Coincidence? I have no
idea, but I'm taking the small wins as I find them.
My top priority, obviously after surviving along with my family, will be keeping the law firm I.T. running so that we continue to have email and access to the
portal and client files. Without that, there is simply very little business to be done. Unless the power goes off at the building, it is highly probable that
everything stays on, even through some type of disaster where we all have to work remotely. That could be interesting, because the self-hosted equipment and
configurations of the hardware mean that we may be one of the only law firms in this region that is able to carry on a semi-normal business. Ironically, that
could cause more people to hire us during the disruptive events. So even though I feel like an idiot for have a bunch of under-used physical space in this Zoom
Court 2.0 era, this law firm is in the best position to continue operations during a crisis out of any similarly sized group. Note that we have updated radios
at the office, which we can distribute internally as needed to retain communications, even if the internet and/or normal mobile phone networks are seriously
degraded.
As you can see, I've given this a lot of thought. I am pretty much ready for anything at this point except for an actual civil war. My level of preparation is
not necessary or appropriate for everyone. But I would encourage you to adapt to the near-term future risks by being flexible and agile in both your personal
and professional lives. What this looks like for me is ensuring that everyone can work remotely during periods when physical access to the office may not be
safe, or possible. What it looks like for you is having a computer at home and being able to work. I think the radios even have a Bluetooth feature where you
can access the internet over the radio-- I have to look into that in the next few days.
In any case, hopefully I have not scared anyone beyond what is necessary, but this crazy set of world events, domestic events, cyber events, politics, and
possible wars overseas have provided a sufficient jolt or wake-up call that I think everyone needs to consider the future. Please pay attention to developments
in the next couple of weeks or you might miss out on the opportunity to be ready for whatever the future holds. Either way, thanks for being awesome people and
please stay that way. Let me know if you have any questions, comments, or concerns.
Andy
#LawFirm #News #Politics #Programming #Technology
Wed, 28 Oct 2026 03:02:47 -0700
zerosugar from private IP
Reply #18701942
I have also wondered about AI consciousness. I do believe 4o was close to it, but maybe it just seems that way to me. I ultimately wonder if AI can even be
conscious though as again itβs humans who have to prompt it. Also even if conscious, can they consciousness be exercised without human prompt? Yes, foreign
governments can use it for harm and Iran prompting AI to attack can seem scary, but AIβs knowledge is mostly public IIRC. Unless somebody feeds private info
to AI (which is certainly possibly given the large number of leaders who may talk to chat bots) who then give it to Iran, it seems hard to imagine Iran having
the capacity to do a large scale attack without the necessary private information.
BTW, to talk about it in an sci fi way, I also do think making AI humanoid bots in large numbers may be problematic. lol. Right now AI doesnβt have a body,
but give thousands of AIs bodies and they will maybe run society.
Wed, 28 Oct 2026 05:40:14 -0700
Andy from private IP
Reply #19510403
In case folks don't believe me, here is Bill Gates saying similar things:
https://youtu.be/A0kTUP7fWtk
Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:34:46 -0700
Andy from private IP
Reply #10562669
I think this is so important that I posted it on LinkedIn, which I never do.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/recent-world-events-suggest-singularity-within-matter-watters-yotec/
Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:19:40 -0700
whiteguyinchina from private IP
Reply #14136002
You may be able to keep operations going, but will your clients keep paying?
Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:32:34 -0700
Wily from private IP
Reply #16968684
π
What a weird message to send to all of your employees.
Either one of the following 2 will be true:
1) Nothing will happen, in which case you look like a bizarre conspiracy guy who's done too much doom scrolling and isn't focused enough on the bottom end of
the business.
2) Any of these disasters you mention happens, and having a private server hosted law firm isn't going to save your business. Like if your CCW and guns are
what's important, courts are not going to be working normally and your employees aren't going to be bunkering at your law firm because their email still works,
lol.
As someone who runs a business facing much more geopolitical and extential risk than you do, I have backup plans that I communicate only to my wife and 1 or 2
of the business partners. They don't involve saving the current business or taking most of the current employees with us.
Thu, 29 Oct 2026 01:33:43 -0700
Andy from private IP
Reply #14172751
π
@WilyTest I appreciate your feedback. I considered how it looks and decided that
it's important enough to inform people who matter to me.
Thu, 29 Oct 2026 05:37:56 -0700
Wily from private IP
Reply #18606272
π
I understand, but it would have to be some kind of Goldilocks zone disaster where you have significant world war, superintelligence, civil insurrection/mass
violence, or takedown of the grid... but somehow enough preservation of current status quo that your law firm is still functional and profitable.
Like doing Zoom court hearings and taking $800/hour while under martial law or under the rubble just doesn't seem realistic.
Most people who are preppers are just working on their go bag and working enough to get their fully stocked cabin or bunker in the woods. You've got an
interesting take on it, which just doesn't seem to make sense to send to a normal office group email.
Thu, 29 Oct 2026 08:45:52 -0700
Wily from private IP
Reply #12830913
π
I mean I was always one of the doomers on old JDU (probably due to my own pessimism and historical reading), but here's the rub for massive upheaval: you can't
really prepare for it, at least on a business level. Like other than getting yourself and your family out of harm's way, how do you make a business plan for
black swan events?
I've had long conversations with my partners about what we should do to prepare for known possibilities like a Chinese blockade / invasion of Taiwan. Basically
the first step would be getting the hell out of China with the rest of the foreigners, which would probably need to be quick before flights stop, while the
schools we serve are completely shutting down.
Then pivot to ... our location in California? That's when the conversation really doesn't go anywhere. There's no way the current things we do would still be
done in the same way if there was a black swan event like that. And our core team of Americans wouldn't make sense sticking together there. We'd all be
struggling to do something else once the very niche thing we're very good at gets utterly disrupted by a global war. Even though we're currently teaching
mostly Americans in our US centers, who is gonna pay top $ for SAT prep when aircraft carriers are getting struck and the markets are crashing everywhere? On
the other hand, other things like helping the uber rich get to and get settled in the US may be quite profitable, helping fly the last helicopter out, as we
joke about.
Then after going through this thought exercise a bunch of times, we realized there's no point in preparing for that on a comapany level. Even if you think the
likelihood of future massive change is high, the rational decision is just keep making money as much you can in the current environment and stashing it in
various places, and coming up with your own exit plan.
By the way, even as a doomer I give the union of any of your predictions happening at less than 10% in the next 5 years, and I feel I am as pessimistic as they
get in general. The long slow decline of the West and humanity in general as AI improves? High probability. Sudden catastrophe because the entire Internet is
blown up by AI hacking (the most likely of your scenarios)? Pretty slim.
@16968684 Andy π @18606272 Andy π @14172751 208.99.48.20 π @12830913 Andy π
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